Transportation is the largest source of
carbon
emissions in the United States and the only sector where emissions are still
rising. But the transition to more electrified transport is well underway: Both
California and New York plan to ban the
sale
of gas-powered vehicles by 2035. Electrifying the entire US vehicle fleet is a
cornerstone of President Biden’s climate plan; and new legislation,
including the Inflation Reduction
Act,
provides hefty incentives for electrifying transport. Half of all new car sales
in the US will be electric vehicles (EV) by 2030; and companies including
General Motors plan to stop
selling gas- and
diesel-powered vehicles well before mid-century.
But there’s a problem: Many US-made EVs are way too big. According to the
International Energy Agency, SUVs and large cars
dominate
the US EV market. Electric SUV batteries are often two to three times larger
than those found in small electric cars, which require more critical metals such
as lithium. By 2050, the US alone will require three times the amount of global
lithium produced today — which means as much as a 200 percent increase in
lithium
mining
by 2035. According to rankings from the American
Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, large EVs are
actually worse for the environment than some gas-powered cars, showing that size
and fuel source are equally important.
A recent report from the Climate and Community Project (CCP) — a climate-policy think tank developing research at the nexus of climate and inequality — highlights how zero-emission urban transport systems can be achieved with less extraction associated with electrification, showing how even relatively small and simple steps — such as smaller EV batteries — can have monumental returns on resource-use efficiency.
CCP works to connect the demands of the climate-justice movement to the
policy-development process by developing investment-forward public-policy
proposals that target the intersection of climate justice and the built
environment. In Achieving Zero Emissions with More Mobility and Less Mining,
the authors — which include researchers from CCP, Providence College,
University of California Davis, and landscape architecture and urban design
firm TEN x TEN — point out that most
transportation forecasts assume car sales and dependency will continue to climb
at a steady rate, with internal combustion engines (ICEs) gradually giving way
to full electrification. But with large cars and SUVs dominating the EV market,
we may be swapping a fossil-fueled problem for an electrified one — which will
accelerate demand for mined metals for batteries.
Batteries may be key to electrifying our
future,
but their production remains problematic: To meet the demands of the booming EV
and renewable-energy industries, we’ll need to unearth massive amounts of raw
materials — in particular, lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese — for battery
production. Mining for these metals puts a heavy strain on the surrounding
environment — large areas of earth are removed and a vast amount of water is
required (it takes 500,000 gallons of
water to
mine one tonne of lithium), which can lead to nearby reservoirs being poisoned
and water being diverted from local communities. In addition to this, metal
mining has been linked to human rights violations and child
labor.
And while
startups
and tech
giants
alike are advancing recycling of these metals, we’re likely still years away
from the supply being able to lessen demand for more mining.
So, the report asks: “What is the most globally just pathway to decarbonizing
the US transportation sector — the number-one source of US emissions? How can
the transition to renewable energy avoid creating new sacrifice zones — where
ecosystems are disrupted, rights violated, and social conflict triggered under
the banner of fighting the climate crisis?”
The report points out that focusing solely on electrification — without a
holistically redesign of our urban transportation systems to decrease private
car
ownership
while simultaneously increasing mobility — will be counterproductive on both the
climate and social-justice fronts: The key for decarbonizing US transportation
will lie in expanding lithium recycling while drastically reducing the amount of
lithium required by decreasing EV battery sizes.
Compared to electrifying transportation at current vehicle ownership rates, the
report presents scenarios that reduce car dependency and limit EV battery sizes
that can lower lithium demand between 18 and 66 percent; just limiting the size
of EV batteries could reduce lithium demand as much as 42 percent, even if the
number of cars on the road and the frequency at which they’re used stay the
same.
There’s one glaring caveat, however: In all but the last and most
lithium-efficient scenario modeled, US demand for lithium will still vastly
exceed current global production. Though the need for new lithium mines is
likely unavoidable, the report models how deep decarbonization of passenger
transport can still be done in an environmentally and socially responsible way.
Beyond climate benefits
The US’s obsession with car dependency is inextricably tied to racist
infrastructure policies including
redlining
and highway
construction
that have separated communities and greatly limited urban accessibility —
particularly, for poor communities of color — for decades. Creating a just,
accessible and fully electrified transportation system requires a complete
rethink of many car-centric urban policies and infrastructure.
For a just, sustainable transition for urban
transportation,
electrification of private vehicles must be done in tandem with creating new
transportation systems that make it easy to live, work and play without a car.
Some of the pathways explored in the report include denser metro areas
facilitating more public transit trips; and building infrastructure favoring
mass transit, biking and walking over car transport.
As the report points out: “Major investments to shift away from US car
dependency would have benefits spanning from the frontlines of mining, which
would see reduced social and environmental harms, to densified metropolitan
areas throughout the country — which would experience myriad benefits from
improved air quality to pedestrian safety. … Ultimately, climate, transit and
[social] justice can be aligned. Doing so requires an ambitious rethinking of
the energy
transition
that emphasizes benefits for communities and ecosystems most impacted by the
climate crisis.
“Just as the United States has a responsibility to cut its fair share of
emissions, it also has a responsibility to reduce stress on harmful and
vulnerable supply chains and to model a different transportation future.”
The authors of the report either declined to be interviewed or did not respond
to a request for comment as of press time.
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Christian is a writer, photographer, filmmaker, and outdoor junkie obsessed with the intersectionality between people and planet. He partners with brands and organizations with social and environmental impact at their core, assisting them in telling stories that change the world.
Published Jul 7, 2023 2pm EDT / 11am PDT / 7pm BST / 8pm CEST