The environmental benefits of having a hefty proportion of the global population
moving to a meat-free
diet
are well documented. Animal farming uses around 77 percent of the world’s
agricultural land; yet, it only supplies 17
percent
of our food. It is this inefficiency that continues to drive the expansion of
farms, and ongoing
deforestation
and loss of ecosystems. Meat production contributes
more to the climate crisis than the
whole of the world’s transport sector, including aviation. And almost a
third of all water used on Earth
is channelled into supporting animal agriculture.
So, arguments in favor of plant-based meat, lab-grown
meats
and other alternative proteins have been deafening in recent years. The
accompanying growth in the market, particularly for plant-based meat
substitutes, has gotten environmentalists very excited.
It has also encouraged brands to scramble to make a move. Swedish furniture
maker IKEA successfully reimagined its best-selling
meatball
with a plant-based version said to have the “same taste and juicy bite” of the
original, despite being made from pea protein, potatoes, oats and onion. Food
giant Kellogg improved its line of MorningStar
Farms
vegetarian patties; and spun out
Incogmeato
— a plant-based line of sausages, burgers and chicken priced to compete with
forerunners such as Beyond Meat and
Impossible Foods. Meanwhile, McDonald’s and
Yum! jumped into bed with new incumbents to double down on plant-based meat,
“demonstrating the long-term potential they see in the category,” according to
Bruce
Friedrich,
executive director of the Good Food Institute.
Back in 2019, conventional meat farmers began to worry. Barclays
predicted
the alternative meat market could jump by more than 1,000 percent in the next
decade to $140 billion. Then,
Forbes
reported on the potentially “game-changing” impact of plant-based trends on
animal farming — particularly in the US, where even a 5-10 percent market share
shift might send “ripples throughout production agriculture.”
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Fast-forward to today, and the industry appears to have stalled. Three years
ago, Beyond Meat went public, to great
accolade.
At one stage, the company was valued at more than $10 billion as its products
were adopted by high-profile restaurants and grocery stores. But in the last 12
months, shares in the business have plummeted by more than 80 percent and sales
have stalled, according to the New York Times.
Beyond has laid off hundreds of employees, and staff
disgruntlement
points to wider problems for the business.
It’s not just Beyond Meat that is having problems. Impossible Foods also cut
jobs late last year as part of a “restructuring exercise” led by its new CEO,
Peter McGuiness. And Brazilian meatpacker
JBS
recently announced plans to close its plant-based arm of the business,
Planterra
Foods.
So, what gives? Well, for a start, all food-based businesses are finding it hard
amid rising inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. Plant-based meat is rarely
cheaper than real meat; so, consumers are acting in the interests of their
wallets, as opposed to the environment. GlobeScan’s latest Healthy & Sustainable Living Global Consumer Insights
study shows that, although the majority of consumers say they are willing to pay
a premium for sustainable products — such as meat-free protein — their
willingness to pay more has declined. Across 23 markets, just 55 percent of
survey respondents tracked between 2019 and 2022 now say they at least “somewhat
agree” they would be willing to pay more for sustainable goods — down from 58
percent in both 2020 and 2021. Three-quarters of people also tend to agree that
sustainable products have become more expensive in the past 12 months.
Another argument against meat-free substitutes is that, while they may be better
for the environment, they might not always be
healthier.
So, what does the future hold for the meat-free market? According to
Deloitte, the market might be more
limited
than many previously thought: “Dramatically improved taste in recent years
(vouched for by seven in 10 consumers) unlocked new interest in plant-based
alternative (PBA) meat,” it says in a report on the subject. “[But] the number
of consumers who sometimes buy PBA meat for themselves or a household member did
not grow in 2022. The half (53 percent) who aren’t buying it may not be easily
reachable, partly due to cultural resistance to a product some view as ‘woke.’
Others, many of whom say they want to reduce their red meat consumption, still
aren’t interested in PBA meat.”
Despite the numerous setbacks experienced by the meat-free movement this year,
the market continues to evolve. The US Food and Drug Administration
approved
the first cultivated meat in the US — Upside Foods’
cell-based chicken — opening up an entirely new alternative to conventional
meat
production
that could boast the environmental benefits of plant-based protein while still
being, well, meat. Meanwhile, Israel is becoming a hub for lab-grown meat
startups. Already home to major players including Aleph
Farms
and Steakholder
Foods,
the country is second only to the US in terms of attracting investment for
alternative-protein companies. Since 2020, nearly $1
billion has been channelled
into Israel — a nation that has had to be inventive when it comes to food
production given the lack of accessible water nationwide.
Whichever way the wind blows, industry players will need to shift, refocus and
reformulate their products to make their proposition even more attractive,
appeal to older generations and bring down costs. Only then can we create the
sustainable alternatives the world needs to address the significant
environmental impacts of animal agriculture while satisfying the meat-loving
masses.
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Content creator extraordinaire.
Tom is founder of storytelling strategy firm Narrative Matters — which helps organizations develop content that truly engages audiences around issues of global social, environmental and economic importance. He also provides strategic editorial insight and support to help organisations – from large corporates, to NGOs – build content strategies that focus on editorial that is accessible, shareable, intelligent and conversation-driving.
Published Feb 2, 2023 1pm EST / 10am PST / 6pm GMT / 7pm CET